I have the pleasure to send you below a section of the report from the ”European Systemic Risk Board” confirming an overheating of the property market in Luxembourg.
Today i’m not trying to explain the main reasons for the overheating of the market, also I will just mention one example among other things, as an increase of the credit rates followed by some departures of some big companies (just an example). The increase in the interest rates is just a question of time, and yes the banks in Luxembourg are extremely exposed on the real estate market in Luxembourg.
With my best regards,
YOUS BUSINESS AND CONSULTING
Luc Schuller | General Partner
76/78 Grand-Rue L-1660 Luxembourg
The key vulnerabilities identified in 2016 were related to high and increasing household indebtedness and to strong growth in house prices. Household debt for house purchases was increasing rapidly and there were some concerns with regard to the tail distributions of lending standards. Household indebtedness was very high relative to income compared with other European countries. House prices were increasing very strongly, reaching unprecedented levels and surpassing income growth.
Household indebtedness has continued to increase rapidly, supported by mortgage lending, with some concerns regarding lending standards. Household debt stood at 171% of disposable income in Q4 2017 and it was up by 12 percentage points compared to three years before. Lending for house purchases continued to grow strongly, by between 6% and 7% annually between 2016 and 2018 (adjusted for sales and securitisations). The most recent data, based on new reporting for 2018, imply that pockets of vulnerabilities related to lending standards may exist.
House prices have continued to grow, but at a slower pace (with dynamics at around 3% in 2018, compared with 6% in 2016), amid existing concerns about overvaluation. However, the long period of RRE price increases is indicative of a build-up of overvaluation. Beyond the low level of interest rates, demand and supply factors such as high net migration and land availability constraints have continued to put pressure on house prices.